Where is the cycle going?

Richard Yetsenga

Chief Economist, ANZ

17 December 2019

Where has the cycle gone?

When we sat down at ANZ Research to put together our forecast for 2020, what struck me hardest was the state of the economic cycle and how that will play out in the New Year.

There will be a recovery – in terms of momentum – but in terms of global growth, we expect only modest improvement.

It’ll feel better next year but it won’t be fantastic.

The biggest factor is likely to be continued struggles with the credit environment – a problem felt across many countries. This new normal – which I’ve written about before – is likely to persist as credit growth continues to dwindle.

Other forces of uncertainty should also continue to play a role - whatever happens with trade between the US and China a key one, and the ongoing consequences of climate change another.

“There will be a recovery – in terms of momentum – but in terms of global growth, we expect only modest improvement.”

-Richard Yetsenga

Outlook 2020

The New Year is upon us. The year 2020 looms as a landmark one for the global economy as trade, technological and environmental factors drive change at a scale rarely seen.

At ANZ Institutional, we aim to help our customers put themselves in the best possible position to take advantage of these forces. Our subject-matter experts have the insight to offer market-leading thought leadership in a range of complex areas from across more than 30 global markets.

We asked our experts about the key factors they see shaping markets and industry in 2020 – and the opportunities and challenges within. We’ll be sharing the responses with you over the coming weeks.

Policymakers everywhere are struggling in response to this lower growth world. Monetary policy is not working the way it was meant to; zero rates were never meant to be a thing anyway. Now that’s where we are at globally, either actually or effectively.

These are not short-term challenges but they should have short-term impacts. And I don't see the debate shifting quickly enough for them to be reconsidered in a fundamental way.

Richard Yetsenga is Chief Economist at ANZ

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