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洞察


牛年中国经济发展的五个关键词

ENGLISH | 中文

澳新银行经济研究团队用疫苗,通胀,拜登,泡沫和新能源这五个关键字来定义新年的中国经济。

澳新银行大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆表达了市场对来年的中国经济前景所寄予的厚望。他同时也提到,拜登时代已经来临,{对}资产泡沫{的恐惧}越来越大,乐观情绪的背后是政策转向的风险。

澳新银行大中华区高级经济学家王蕊和高级中国策略师邢兆鹏也一起参与了有关话题的探讨。您可以观看下面的视频。

王蕊认为,{新冠}疫苗的成功是今年全球经济复苏的最大希望。​​2021年的疫苗大规模接种无疑将推动中国的出口需求。但与此同时,全球经济的提振可能会将令到宽松货币政策的退出提上议事日程,进而影响中国的金融市场。

邢兆鹏认为在疫苗良好的进展下,通胀可能成为2021年成为最主要的一个超预期变量。但是,由于中国的货币政策非常注重就业,通胀即使超出预期,也不一定会导致央行收紧货币政策。但是,中国工业产品的价格上涨将产生显著的溢出效应。

观看视频以了解更多有关信息。

该视频是在澳新银行经济研究团队发布的《牛年中国:五个关键词》报告之前拍摄的。您可以在此处访问完整的报告。

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