VoiceOver users please use the tab key when navigating expanded menus


Five themes facing China in the year of the Ox


A vaccine for COVID-19, inflation, new US President Joe Biden, bubbles and new energy.

Those are the five eclectic themes that will define China’s economy in the New Year according to ANZ Research.

Speaking on video, ANZ’s Chief Economist, Greater China Raymond Yeung said the market had high hopes for China’s economic prospects in the coming year.

“However, the Biden era has come, and [fear of an] asset bubble is getting bigger and bigger,” he said. “Behind the optimism is the risk of policy change.”

Yeung made the comments on a panel with ANZ Senior Economist Greater China, Betty Wang and Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing. You can watch a video of the discussion below.

Wang said the success of the various COVID-19 vaccines was the best hope for global economic recovery this year.  

“The large-scale vaccination in 2021 will undoubtedly drive China's export demand,” she said. “But at the same time, the boost of the global economy may put the withdrawal of loose monetary policy on the agenda, which in turn will affect China's financial markets.”

Xing said if the vaccine rollout is a success, inflation could become a major unexpected variable in 2021.

“However, since China's monetary policy is very focused on employment, even if inflation exceeds expectations, it may not necessarily cause the central bank to tighten its monetary policy,” he said. “However, the price increase of industrial products in China will have a significant spillover effect. “

Watch to find out more on the video above.

The above video was shot ahead of the release of the “China in the Year of the Ox: Five Keywords” report from ANZ Research. You can access the full report HERE.

Chipping up in ASEAN

Read more

This publication is published by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ABN 11 005 357 522 (“ANZBGL”) in Australia. This publication is intended as thought-leadership material. It is not published with the intention of providing any direct or indirect recommendations relating to any financial product, asset class or trading strategy. The information in this publication is not intended to influence any person to make a decision in relation to a financial product or class of financial products. It is general in nature and does not take account of the circumstances of any individual or class of individuals. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation or offer by ANZBGL or its branches or subsidiaries (collectively “ANZ”) to you to acquire a product or service, or an offer by ANZ to provide you with other products or services. All information contained in this publication is based on information available at the time of publication. While this publication has been prepared in good faith, no representation, warranty, assurance or undertaking is or will be made, and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by ANZ in relation to the accuracy or completeness of this publication or the use of information contained in this publication. ANZ does not provide any financial, investment, legal or taxation advice in connection with this publication.