The two worlds opening up in the recovery

Success in Asia Pacific in curtailing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic means any isolated outbreaks will have a minor economic impact, according to ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga – but the same can’t be said for other major regions around the world, including the United States and United Kingdom.

Speaking on a call with ANZ customers, Yetsenga said countries in the south-east Asian region, along with Australia and New Zealand, are generally in good shape when it comes to the pandemic, with social transmission controlled and advanced trace abilities.

“I think outbreaks during this opening-up period can be controlled through treating them as spot outbreaks, rather than needing to consider renewed shut downs, for the most part,” he said.

“In places like the US and the UK, they're closer to the tipping point of needing to potentially think about shutting down regions, cities or parts of their economies if they face - as we should expect - an increase in COVID-19 cases as they ease [restrictions].

Yetsenga led a global call into the impact of the pandemic, which also featured ANZ Senior Economist Felicity Emmett, Senior International Economist Tom Kenny and India Economist Rini Sen. You can listen to an edited version of the call below.

Yetsenga said it is clear a number of economies will face significant challenges as they begin to open up.

“That's been camouflaged at the global level because other economies [have] things under control,” he said.

“If the economies that have things under control start to see a meaningful increase in cases, then that, of course, could tip the global balance of news.”

Listen to a podcast of the call above to find out more – including in-depth analysis of ANZ’s key markets.

Shane White is content manager at ANZ Institutional