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A recovery in many parts

Nothing about this crisis has been normal. But the trajectory of the inevitable recovery, according to ANZ Head of FX and G3 Research Daniel Been, may be particularly unusual.

Speaking on a call with ANZ customers, Been said it was clear any short-term relief from the COVID-19 crisis would precede some real economic challenges in the medium to long term.

“Ordinarily, the rebound would have been much smoother, in terms of its trajectory,” he said. “And all [there would be] to guess was whether it was one year or six months before you regained lost output.”

“But this [recovery] is starting to look more and more like it could end up being a sawtooth pattern rather than something smooth.”

Been led a global call into the impact of the pandemic which also featured ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner, South East Asia & India Chief Economist Sanjay Mathur and Economist Adelaide Timbrell.

Been said this gap between the short and medium term would make it difficult to create accurate forecasts for the future.

“[It will be tough for] a business trying to forecast demand and understand what their new levels of demand look like,” he said.

Listen to a podcast of the call above to find out more – including in-depth analysis of ANZ’s key markets.

Shane White is content manager at ANZ Institutional

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