Yetsenga said 12 months ago the very suggestion of a trade war was seen as crazy but now was seen in some circles as “the thing that's going to ruin us”.
“The global economy - and domestically in fact - faces some serious structural issues,” he said. “But if you follow the popular narrative this time last year the structural issues didn't exist.”
“I think the reality actually is somewhere in the middle.”
Yetsenga conceded export growth was negative in some countries but said history suggests only a big problem – such as the global financial crisis or the dot.com bust – would see that last for an extended period.
“Is it conceivable that tariffs… are the big thing that's going to bring the global trade cycle unstuck?” he said. “It's not to me.”
Shane White is Content Manager, Institutional at ANZ